The Gas Pump Voted. What the Iran War Election Means for Alberta Oil.

Vice President JD Vance did not bother spinning it. "The reason we lost is the war. The president himself said so last night," he posted on X the day after Republicans lost both chambers of Congress, NBC News reported. The war with Iran, which began February 28, choked traffic through the Strait of Hormuz and sent fuel prices soaring in an election that turned on the cost of living.

On November 5, the US average for a gallon of regular sat at US$4.10, against US$3.08 a year earlier, according to AAA. Diesel was US$6.26, up from US$3.70. For Canada, and for Alberta in particular, that same war has been a windfall. The question now is what happens when the people who paid for it at the pump take over Congress.

Did Gas Prices Really Decide the Midterms?

They were part of a bigger bill. In the ABC News Voter Poll, 34% of House voters called the Iran war "crucial" to their vote, while 49% said the same of the cost of living and 55% named government corruption, ABC News reported. Fuel sits right where the war and household budgets meet.

Trump had promised fast relief. "As soon as the war ends, fuel prices are going to drop like a rock," he said on a Kansas City radio show in late October, per NBC. After the loss, he did not back down. "If I had it to do again, I'd have to do it again because long term, it's the only answer," he said, according to ABC.

Why Did Oil Crash After the Election?

Traders bet the war was winding down. Brent crude peaked at US$116 a barrel on October 23 and fell below US$100 for the first time since September as the results came in, CBS News reported. Both benchmarks dropped more than 8% on November 4.

It bounced the next day. Brent settled at US$98.29 and West Texas Intermediate at US$90.52 on November 5 as new tanker attacks kept supply fears alive, Reuters reported via The Globe and Mail. UK maritime authorities counted 35 vessels hit in October, the most of any month in the war. Eurasia Group still puts the odds of renewed US strikes on Iran at 60%, and the odds of a deal at just 10%.

Some Canadian investors think the higher prices are here to stay. Jerome Hass of Lightwater Partners argued Democrats have little reason to bail Trump out on Iran. "When your enemies are making a mistake, don't stop them," he told BNN Bloomberg.

Will Canadian Gas Prices Come Down?

A bit. "In the next week or two, and maybe beyond that, we should see prices dip somewhere in the ballpark of five to 20 cents a litre on gasoline, maybe diesel by 10 to 20 cents a litre," GasBuddy's Patrick De Haan told Global News. On a 50-litre fill, that is about $10.

It would barely dent the past year. Canadian gasoline prices were up 27.8% year over year in September, and energy prices overall rose 19%, according to Statistics Canada. Gas was the main reason overall inflation hit 3.1%. Without it, prices rose just 2.2%.

How Much Has the War Paid Alberta's Oil Patch?

A lot. Cenovus reported third-quarter profit of $3.36 billion, up from $1.29 billion a year earlier, according to The Globe and Mail. Imperial Oil earned $2.45 billion, up from $539 million, helped by a global diesel squeeze, the Globe reported.

Almost all of that oil goes to one customer. Canada exported 4.3 million barrels a day of crude in 2025, and 90.1% of it went to the US, worth $126.1 billion, according to the Canada Energy Regulator. Canada supplied 63.4% of all the crude the US imported. Every dollar of war premium on a barrel lands, in part, in Alberta.

That is also the uncomfortable part. The same price spike that voters punished in Ohio and Texas is what lifted Calgary's quarterly earnings. When Washington moves to bring prices down, the oil patch's best quarters may be behind it.

What Does a Democratic Congress Mean for Pipelines?

More permit risk, mainly. South Bow, the Calgary company that runs the Keystone system, is pitching Prairie Connector, a 550,000-barrel-a-day line from Alberta to Wyoming that would revive the Keystone XL route. CEO Bevin Wirzba said the company cannot proceed without evidence its US permit is "durable" and will not be revoked by a future administration, CBC News reported in May.

"Without assurances that a new US administration would not revoke the permits in 2029, as Biden did with KXL, the project is likely to be stalled," TPH analyst AJ O'Donnell said. A Democratic sweep this size makes that 2029 scenario feel a lot closer.

RBC sees a narrower window, not a closed door. "The oil industry wants permitting reform before Democrats take their seats," its analysts wrote in a post-election brief, noting that Canadian crude supplies about 60% of US oil imports.

Is Alberta's Approach Paying Off?

Premier Danielle Smith thinks so. She has refused to use oil exports as a weapon in the trade war, and she called the midterm result "a vindication of our approach when it comes to tariffs," per the Canadian Press via BNN Bloomberg.

The province's real test is closer to home. Suncor, Cenovus, Canadian Natural, Imperial and ConocoPhillips are still hammering out a deal tied to the Pathways carbon capture project, with a November 15 deadline looming. "The days on the calendar are just other days to me," Suncor CEO Rich Kruger told analysts, per the Globe.

For young Albertans, the takeaway is mixed. Cheaper gas helps the household budget. Lower oil prices squeeze the provincial budget and the jobs tied to it. The war that cost Republicans Congress has been paying a lot of Alberta's bills, and nobody in Edmonton should plan as if those cheques keep coming.